Q&A: Renewed instability in Pakistan

A deepening political row between the Pakistani government and its army and judiciary has led to renewed concerns over the stability of the country, which has a history of military coups. At stake is the survival of President Asif Ali Zardari's democratically elected - though weak and unpopular- government.

Why have the military and the government fallen out?

The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of President Zardari has never enjoyed particularly close relations with the army.

The latest manifestation of this ongoing row reignited spectacularly in October 2011 through what has become known as the "memogate" scandal. This arose in the wake of an anonymous memo unearthed in Washington that sought US help to avert a possible military coup in Pakistan following the killing by US forces of al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden in May.

Pakistan's ambassador to the US at the time, Husain Haqqani, was alleged to have drafted it at the behest of President Zardari, who is alleged to have offered to replace his country's military leadership and sever all ties with militant groups in exchange for US help against the army. The memo was delivered to the then US Joint Chiefs Chairman, Michael Mullen. He admitted receiving it, but insisted that it was not acted upon. The row has already cost Mr Haqqani his job. He denies any role in drafting the memo - as does President Zardari. But the president could be forced to quit if the trail is found to lead to his door.

In January the military publicly rebuked Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, warning of "serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences" after he criticised military leaders in a media interview.

Why have the judiciary and the government fallen out?

If the PPP's relations with the military have traditionally not been warm, the same can also be said of its relations with the judiciary. The Supreme Court is conducting its own investigation into the "memogate" affair which is separate from a parliamentary inquiry. Petitioners in the case are demanding that Mr Haqqani and President Zardari should be tried on charges of treason.

The judiciary is also pursuing the government over the thorny issue of corruption. In January the Supreme Court warned that PM Gilani could be disqualified from office for not reopening corruption cases against top politicians - a panel of judges even went so far as to accuse him of violating his oaths and not being an honest man. Another sign of tense relations came in in 2009, when the court overturned an amnesty protecting President Zardari and hundreds of other politicians from being prosecuted for corruption.

Is there likely to be a coup?

Most analysts believe this is highly unlikely, chiefly because there appears to be a rare consensus among Pakistan's political classes that any attempt to stage a military take-over would be universally resisted. There is little that the current army leadership can offer to the rest of the world that would persuade it to support military intervention. Furthermore the military's credibility - both in Pakistan and abroad - is at a historic low following the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

Most analysts agree that the most likely scenario is that President Zardari will continue his "play safe" approach and not attempt to replace the leadership of either the ISI intelligence service or the army. But the government is likely to come under increasing pressure from the opposition to call early elections. Its tenure officially comes to an end in February 2013 but it may be pressured into going to the polls well before then. However it will not want to call an election before March, when it hopes to use the provincial legislatures to win a majority in the national senate.

How secure is President Zardari?

After three years in office plagued by misrule and allegations of corruption, no-one is betting at the moment on President Zardari or his government completing their terms of office. The days of a military coup may be gone in Pakistan, many analysts say, but things are about to get a lot tougher for the government.

Perhaps one of the most serious threats to the president comes from the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan. The leader of the Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party is seemingly being propped up as a "third force" to the traditional two major parties, President Zardari's PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League of former PM Nawaz Sharif. Some are genuinely drawn to Mr Khan because he is a political novice with a corruption-free past. Others are flocking to him convinced that he is the military's preferred choice and will therefore offer a dose of urgently needed stability.

Encouraged by the prospect of change and political realignment, former President Pervez Musharraf has also decided to return to the fray - pledging to go back to Pakistan at the earliest opportunity. In the event of early elections, some analysts are predicting an alliance between Mr Khan, Mr Musharraf, the Sindh-based MQM party and a variety of army-backed politicians. Whoever ends up running Pakistan faces a daunting challenge - the economy is in the doldrums, insurgents are active in many parts of the country and relations with the US are the worst in a decade.

Are there any grounds for optimism?

It depends. The BBC's M Ilyas Khan in Islamabad says that Pakistan appears to be heading into a period of massive confusion which many believe could translate either into a stronger parliamentary democracy or a total collapse of the system.

Successive military regimes - or governments controlled by the military - have promoted a militarised society where overall conditions are akin to a "war economy". But against this our correspondent points out that the present democratic administration has survived longer than any other in Pakistani history - which probably explains why the confrontation between the institutions has assumed such alarming proportions.

Pakistan Supreme Court warns PM Yousuf Raza Gilani

Pakistan's prime minister could be disqualified from office for not reopening corruption cases against top politicians, the Supreme Court says.

A panel of senior judges suggested Yousuf Raza Gilani was not an honest man and had violated his oath.

Relations between Pakistan's civilian government and the judiciary are tense.

In 2009 the Supreme Court overturned an amnesty protecting President Zardari and hundreds of other politicians from being prosecuted for corruption.

There are still court cases pending in Pakistan against Mr Zardari, who spent years in jail after being indicted for corruption, charges he says were politically motivated. His office currently provides him with immunity from prosecution.

Former President Pervez Musharraf brought in the amnesty by decree in 2007. It was aimed at a possible power-sharing deal with Mr Zardari's late wife, Benazir Bhutto.

She returned to Pakistan from abroad after the so-called National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) was signed into law, but was assassinated soon after. Subsequent elections swept her Pakistan People's Party to power.

PM 'not honest'

Critics of the amnesty say it is illegal to help so many politicians and officials to escape prosecution for alleged wrongdoing.

The Supreme Court said the government had failed to implement its ruling.

"The government is not taking interest to observe the order for the last two years," it said. "The court has taken an oath to defend the constitution. The prime minister respected the party over the constitution.

"Prima facie... he may not be an honest person on account of his not being honest to the oath of his office."

The government has resisted re-opening the cases covered under the amnesty, insisting that as far as they are concerned, it is a closed chapter.

The BBC's Shahzeb Jillani says the strongly-worded remarks by senior judges have confirmed what many in Pakistan have been fearing for some time: that the civilian government and Pakistan's top court are on a collision course.

The stand-off comes amid a growing rift between civilian and military leaders.

Many in Pakistan feel the pressure on President Zardari's government could leave him with no choice in the end but to call an early election, our correspondent says.

The next general election is due by early 2013. Mr Zardari's term runs out later that year.

NATO wants relations with Pakistan back on track

KABUL: Nato wants to get relations with Pakistan back on track “as quickly as possible” to reopen its key supply route for foreign troops fighting in Afghanistan, a coalition spokesman said Monday.

Pakistan closed Nato supply route to Afghanistan in November, choking supply line for the 130,000-strong US-led force, following a deadly air strike by the alliance force that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on the border.

Islamabad had rejected the coalition’s report that blamed the incident on mistakes by both sides and has not said when it will reopen the route.

“We have an interest…for Afghanistan that relations with Pakistan should normalise as quickly as possible,” said Brigadier General Carsten Jacobsen.

“We are aware that there are things that are not travelling to Afghanistan because they are stuck at border control points.

“It mainly affects the economy, wages and work for people who are in the transport business in Pakistan and Afghanistan.”

The spokesman for Nato’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) however sought to allay concerns among Afghans that the route blockage would force the coalition to buy locally and force a hike in the price of fuel and food.

“The people of Afghanistan will not be challenged by Nato buying their fuel and their food. Nato’s stockpiles are more than sufficient,” he said.

A Pakistani official earlier said that Nato military vehicles and supplies were piling up at the docks, with truck drivers unable to drive them to the northwestern border to cross into Afghanistan.

“At present, a total of 3,676 military vehicles and 1,732 containers belonging to Nato forces are at the port,” a port official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

It was reported earlier, that the US has decided to export all its cargo, including military hardware and arms, out of Pakistan.

Sources told Express News that the break in supplies has frustrated US authorities to the point where they are now weighing various options to move around the cargo stranded at various locations in Pakistan.

The deadly incident heightened tensions in an already fragile relationship between the US and Pakistan, with Pakistani officials alleging deliberate US targeting of their troops at border posts.

Public’s interest in politics grows as PTI gets active

LAHORE: The growing popularity of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) can be judged by the fact that the city’s bus stands, markets and shops are abuzz with discussions and speculations about the next political setup, which is a welcoming sign given that people have seldom been enthusiastic about politics.

Before the PTI became politically active, existing political parties were busy securing their contacts in the establishment for the next general elections. However, the scenario has changed dramatically with the unprecedented rise of the PTI, and the induction of established politicians into Imran Khan’s party. Though there are reservations about some of the new PTI members, given their long history in previous governments, people are still optimistic about prospect of the next government.

It is no secret that the country’s two major political parties are weary of the PTI’s increasing popularity and grass roots support. This is the first time since supporting Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, that the educated classes have attended political gatherings in such large numbers. Although all the political parties claim to have the “full support” of the public, their gatherings show that the reality is otherwise.

Imran Khan has proven that he has a certain charisma, which has encouraged students, women, schoolteachers, celebrities and people from other walks of life to participate in his rallies in Lahore and Karachi. These people were never forced to attend the conventions, a charge that is frequently directed at other parties, and instead did so because they felt that Imran could help eradicate the plague of corruption and bring lasting change.

His rallies portray the picture of a political gathering in which people from all walks of life are supposed to participate, not those who merely chant slogans in favour of their leaders.

It is intriguing to see political heavyweights trying to muster support from their former supporters, as their future outside the government looks bleak, since questions about their wealth and offshore accounts cannot be dodged forever.

“I sincerely hope that the coming elections are not rigged because that is the only way to defeat Imran Khan since people in the country and abroad are fully supporting him,” a fashion model that attended the PTI convention in Lahore told Daily Times.

“I postponed a photo shoot to attend Imran Khan’s Jalsa because I believe he could make a positive difference for our country, which will be home to my children when I am gone,” she added.

It will be a huge challenge for the cricketer-turned-politician to keep up with the hopes of the public, who consider him the best candidate for the future of the country. If the mainstream political parties want to win the 2013 elections, they will need to revamp their style and focus on engaging with more extensively with the public.

Pakistan Rangers seize US military equipment

KARACHI: Pakistan Rangers have seized sensitive military equipment belonging to the US and Nato on security grounds, Express News reported on Friday.


According to the Ranger officials, the equipment will remain under their control until further orders are received from the government.

The rangers, for the purpose of storing the military supplies, have rented a yard namely Mega6 at the Port Qasim.

So far, 250 containers have been offloaded at the Mega6 yard.

It was reported earlier that the US has decided to export all its cargo, including military hardware and arms, out of Pakistan.

Sources told Express News that the break in supplies has frustrated US authorities to the point where they are now weighing various options to move around the cargo stranded at various locations in Pakistan.

According to sources, US cargo, stranded in Pakistan, is worth millions of dollars and US authorities have serious concerns over the safety of the cargo as it includes Humvee vehicles, dumpers, anti-aircraft guns, special carriers of anti-aircraft guns, vehicles specially built to jam communications, cranes and sophisticated weapons.

Pakistan court orders 'memogate' inquiry

Pakistan's Supreme Court has set up an inquiry into a controversial unsigned memo that asked for US help in curbing the powers of the military.

The court said a panel of four high court judges would conclude its findings within a month.

The "memogate" scandal concerns a note allegedly sent from Pakistan's political leadership to US Adm Mike Mullen, via a former ambassador.

President Asif Ali Zardari's aides deny any links with the document.

Pakistan's civilian leaders were allegedly worried that the army was about to launch a coup after US forces killed Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad in May.

They say any court inquiry into the affair would be unnecessary and politically motivated. The government argues that a parliamentary committee is already looking into memogate.

Correspondents say Friday's ruling will put additional pressure on the government and could even lead to President Zardari's fall from power if a link is established.

"I think that this is one of the darkest days in history for the judiciary," said a lawyer for Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani - who denies any role in the affair.

"I said in the Supreme Court too that this is a very disappointing judgement. This is a judgement that places national security above fundamental rights," lawyer Asma Jahangir said.

Earlier this week President Zardari accused Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry of failing to investigate the murder of his wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

He was addressing party supporters on the anniversary of Ms Bhutto's killing.

He pointed to a hearing the Supreme Court opened over the leaked memo as proof the court has been inconsistent.

Pakistan journalists 'threatened by security' personnel

Two senior Pakistani journalists say they have received threatening messages after raising questions over the military's role in their respective television shows.

Both suspect the threats have emanated from Pakistan's powerful security establishment and its premier intelligence service, the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence).

The ISI was widely accused of killing a local journalist, Saleem Shehzad, in May 2011.

It vehemently denied the charge.

Journalists' organisations say at least 29 journalists have been killed in Pakistan during the last five years, many of them specifically for their work.Messages

A senior journalist, Najam Sethi, disclosed at a television talk show on Wednesday night that he had received "serious" threats from "both non-state and state actors".

He said if these threats did not cease, he would be "compelled to take names of the organisations and officials" who were behind them.

Without naming any intelligence service, he said its operatives were "in touch with and threatening several other senior journalists".

"If anything bad happens to me or my dear ones, the security establishment will be responsible” Hamid Mir Pakistani journalist

"We did not speak about this before because we did not want to destabilise things, but the time has come when all of them should come forward and speak about it publicly," he said, speaking in Urdu.

"This is not the age when the intelligence operatives should be threatening their own civilians. A state within the state is not acceptable," he said.

Mr Sethi is the main analyst at a late night news show on Pakistan's Geo TV in which he has been offering comments critical of the military's role.

His disclosure comes a week after another senior journalist, Hamid Mir, sent out an email to journalists' bodies around the world claiming that he had been receiving threatening messages from what he called "the security establishment".

Mr Mir is the host of Geo TV's popular talk show, Capital Talk.

Mr Mir wrote in his email that these threats have emerged following two talk shows he did which contained critical comments about the military.

"I am sure that the security establishment of Pakistan is once again angry with all those who raise questions about the political role of the army," he wrote.

He added: "If anything bad happens to me or my dear ones, the security establishment will be responsible."

A commission constituted to investigate the May 2011 killing of journalist Saleem Shehzad is investigating the role of the ISI, among others, as a possible suspect in the case.

Journalists working on security-related issues say they have always been threatened and intimidated by the intelligence agencies and have often been forced to under-report "sensitive" issues.

But in recent months, they have increasingly spoken out in public on the issue.

The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) released the text of Mr Mir's email last week, which contains the text of an SMS message he had received.

According to Mr Mir, the SMS read, "I have not seen a real bastard than you. I wish somebody comes and strips you naked. I hope some army man has not done real dirty with your dear ones."

Pakistan Imran Khan rally draws tens of thousands

Tens of thousands of people have turned out at a rally in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi for former cricketer turned politician Imran Khan.

Mr Khan, who has been an established politician for many years but has struggled to win votes, has seen his support increase recently.

Correspondents say he has been riding a wave of disillusionment, particularly among the urban middle class.

The next national elections are scheduled for 2013.

'Potent power'
The BBC's Aleem Maqbool, at the rally, says there were posters, banners and T-shirts espousing hope - clearly reminiscent of the sentiment that carried President Barack Obama to office in the US.

One supporter there told the BBC: "I'm highly optimistic that Imran Khan has the potent power to bring in change which we highly need because our country can't survive without a fair and just leadership.

The turnout in Karachi was large, given Mr Khan's traditional support base is in 
Punjab province
"It doesn't matter that he's a cricketer or something else. Whatever he is, he is not a diplomat, he is not a liar."

But our correspondent says that despite winning support from many disillusioned Pakistanis, Mr Khan still has a lot of work to do to clarify exactly what he stands for and whether he really does have the ability to lead the country out of its troubles.

The two main parties - the PPP and the PML-N - are still strongly entrenched and Mr Khan has yet to spell out the specific policies of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party.

One policy Mr Khan has won support for his opposition to US drone strikes on militants inside Pakistani territory.

He also argues that foreign aid is fuelling corruption and should be stopped.

Mr Khan has won over key defectors such as the PPP's Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Javed Hashmi of the PML-N.

The turnout in Karachi was large, given Mr Khan's traditional support base is in Punjab province.